Policymakers have adopted a goal of keeping the global rise in mean surface temperatures to no more than 2 C° (3.6 F°) above pre-industrial levels.
Myles Allen et al. simulate the mean “global warming” that would result from a given cumulative carbon emission. They conclude that a trillion tonnes of carbon emissions (about 3.7 trillion tonnes of CO2, roughly half of which has already been emitted) produces a “most likely” warming of 2 C° (3.6 F°).
Malte Meinshausen et al. take a slightly different tack by modelling the probability of global temperature rises across a range of greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. They find that total emissions from 2000 to 2050 of about 1,400 gigatonnes of CO2 yields a 50% probability of exceeding 2 C° warming by the end of the 21st century. Emissions for the last seven years were almost 250 gigatonnes, implying that even without future increases in CO2 emissions the total emissions from 2000-2050 may well exceed this 50% probability.
Nature is one of many “scientific” journals that have openly declared an editorial prejudice in favor of a frankly alarmist viewpoint on the climate. In short, Nature adamantly refuses to publish any paper suggesting – however compelling the evidence and arguments – that anthropogenic “global warming” will not be as significant as the UN’s climate panel suggests. Nature’s selection process is, therefore, openly prejudiced ab initio. In reality, Nature is now a religious rather than a scientific journal.
As is now usual, the two papers foretelling “dangerous climate change” are based not on real-world observations but on computer games. This is the “X-Box 360” method of doing science. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the discoverer of the science underlying the aurora borealis and one of the dozen most-cited scientists in the world, has pointed out that computer models of the climate such as those relied upon in the two papers in Nature are instructed from the outset to assume that the temperature response to CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere will be substantial. The Playstations do not tell us that there will be major warming as a result of our activities – we tell the Playstations.
Are we right to tell the models that climate sensitivity will be high? No. Lorenz (1963), in the landmark paper that founded chaos theory, said that because the climate is a mathematically-chaotic object (a point which the UN’s climate panel admits), accurate long-term prediction of the future evolution of the climate is not possible “by any method”. At present, climate forecasts even as little as six weeks ahead can be diametrically the opposite of what actually occurs, even if the forecasts are limited to a small region of the planet. For instance, in April 2007 the UK Met Office predicted that that summer would be the hottest, driest and most drought-prone since records began, just weeks before the commencement of the coldest, wettest and most flood-prone summer since records began. In Autumn 2008, the Met Office predicted a warmer-than-average winter, just weeks before the coldest winter in two decades began. Read more.